October 2024: Toronto & GTA MLS® home sales: Sales, Inventory Up; Prices Flat

Greater Toronto, Ontario, November 6th, 2024 - TRREB - the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board - this morning released its “MarketWatch” monthly MLS® statistical report detailing October, 2024 home market buying and selling activity in Toronto, The Greater Toronto Area, and surrounding parts of South-Central Ontario.

Overall

Including all of TRREB’s market area as noted above and all home Classes [e.g. Freehold, Condominium…] Types [e.g. Detached, Semi-Detached, Towns…] & Syles [e.g. Bungalow, 2-Storey, Split-Level…], a relatively impressive 6,658 home sales were reported in October, a 44.4% jump from the year-earlier month. Overall, however, the average selling price remained relatively flat at $1,135,215, up 1.1%.

Selling prices were relatively flat: The largest increases coming in the low-rise sector within “Toronto proper” at around four percent higher.

All figures herein are - considering the strong seasonality of the residential real estate market - year-over-year [“YoY”] comparisons unless specifically noted otherwise.

Specifics by “Major Home Type”

Metro Toronto saw 838 Detached homes reported sold on the month, up 44.2%, at an average of $1,778,855, up 4.4%. The balance of TRREB’s market area had 2,301 sales of Detached homes reported up 47.5%, averaging $1,347,747, up off a hair at “-0.1%”.

Sales volume of Condo Apartments in “T.O.” - aka “The Big Smoke” - came back to life in a hurry from its relative slump at 1,162 units on the month, a 32.2% jump, at an average of $721,366, down one percent even. The rest of the market area saw 560 sales, up 35.9%, averaging $637,332, down 4.3%.

While it's a "Style" of home as opposed to a "Type", we'll point out once again that Bungalows remain a very popular option across all of TRREB's market area as various sectors and cohorts seek out the coveted single storey lifestyle without giving up the deck, barbeque and yard for a balcony. If you're looking at buying or selling a Bungalow in “Toronto, The GTA, and Beyond…!”, drop us a line: Nobody can offer you what we can when it comes to Bungalows, BungaLofts, and Single-Storey Homes in general.

Quoting from the Report…

TRREB Director of Market Analysis, Jason Mercer:
“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for home buyers. This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

TRREB CEO John DiMichele:
“Policymakers can further improve affordability by reducing taxes on home buyers. TRREB supports the Conservative Party of Canada pledge to remove the GST from the purchase of new homes sold for under $1 million as this is an encouraging step towards giving new home buyers desperately needed relief. Enhancing the rebate will not only make homes more affordable, but it will also increase the number of homes built. … Given that the average price of a home in less affordable markets such as the GTA and Vancouver is over $1 million, phasing out the rebate between $1 million and $1.5 million, rather than a hard cutoff at $1 million, would address this shortcoming. Provincial consideration should also be given to matching this proposal.”

TRREB President Jennifer Pearce:
“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October. The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices, prompted this improvement in market activity.”

That Inventory Thing…

Interesting how the MSM - Main Stream Media - conversation has “quietly” morphed - to no-one's surprise if you’ve been reading our posts here, BTW! - from “Housing Shortage” to quotes like the one above - directly from the real estate board’s own publication - “...there is still a lot of inventory…”. Yes. And while October’s jump in sales volume is very encouraging it does come hand-in-hand with still-rising inventory.

Apologies for harping on it, but the most common number cited on the inventory front is “New Listings”. That is - by definition - a complicated number. It includes houses & condos terminated and re-listed, reduced, refreshed, regurgitated, etc… The “purer” indicator of the current inventory situation is - as we’ve said here many times - simply, “Total Active Listings”. TAL. So, while “New Listings” 🙄 rose 4.3%, don’t look now but TAL - the big picture - is up 25.3% YoY. Again - a big jump. The sheer difference between those two stats tells a lot in our not-so-humble opinion.

“[Indicated] Forward Inventory" is an indicator of how long it would take to sell all the homes listed right now assuming the current rate of sales stays constant. Simply, TAL divided by the month’s total sales. At month-end that worked out to three-and-two-thirds [3.677, actually - for the persnickety math folks on board 😉] months. And that’s actually pretty balanced-market-territory by historical metrics. The question is, will the rate of sales continue that relatively robust rate it’s currently running at - particularly given price levels that are still outa reach for many.

There are a lot of variables… risk… out there right now. “DJT” is practically the definition of “wild card”, and his policy trajectory does not look good for Canada in the short-to-intermediate term particularly, in our opinion. It DOES, however, likely make the case even stronger for lower interest rates this side of the 49th parallel… the question is, “At what cost?”.

Thank-you for stopping by. Drop a line anytime with your questions… and comments - the Good… The Bad… The Ugly… !

Andrew.

#theBB.group #JustBungalows

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