January 2021: Toronto & GTA MLS® home sales: Are we there yet?

Toronto, Ontario, February 8th, 2021 - Realtors® in Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area today released the TRREB MLS® residential sales statistics for January 2021 via their monthly MarketWatch publication showing the number of sales up 52.4% versus January, 2020 including strength across all home groups - even the Condo Apartment sector which had been the laggard of late - though that latter sector's statistics included a bounce in inventory and resultant weakness in selling prices. Clearly buyers stepped in to take advantage of prices softened by the pandemic-inspired exodus from the higher density areas. All figures herein are year-over-year [YoY] comparisons unless otherwise noted.

Overall, meaning all home types across all of the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s market area, 6,928 homes were reported sold at an average sale price of $967,885, up 15.5%.

Homes sold “11.1% faster” this January at 24 days on the market on average compared to 27 days.

Inventory

While new listings were up 20.2% to 9,430 homes, that was weighted toward the Condo Apartment sector as opposed to the low-rise sector. Total Active Listings available, even with that surge in Condo listings, were down 4.8% to 7,396 total inventory.

Based on those numbers, “Forward Inventory'' - the amount of time it would take for present inventory to sell given the current rate of sales [Total Active Listings divided by Total Sales on the Month] stood at 1.07 months. That’s tight by historical standards and, factoring in the Condo Apartment listings surge, obviously inventory in the low-rise sector is back at or close to historical lows. That’s reflected in the frequency of multiple-offer [“bidding war”] situations in the marketplace currently within that sector. With the supply of available Bungalows even lower than that of other styles of home - as one client recently described them, “scarce” - that particular group continues to see unprecedented interest from Buyers and above-average price appreciation. If you own a Bungalow and you’d like an update on your particular ‘hood or the specific value of your Bungalow, drop a line anytime.

Specific Numbers

Sales of Detached homes in the City of Toronto - “The 416” [area code] - totalled 522 on the month, up 30.2%, at an average selling price of $1,581,400, up an average sixteen percent even. That average price slightly eclipsed April, 2017’s $1,578,542.

The rest of the Greater Toronto Area - “The 905” [area code] - saw 2,244 Detached homes sell, up 35.4%, at an average of $1,308,393, up 36.6%. Unbelievable. Unsustainable? Depends who you ask...

Condo Apartment sales reported via TRREB’s MLS® System totalled 1,703 units in Toronto - a stunning 85.5% increase over last January. The average sale price of $624,886 was a drop of eight percent as that inventory rose. In the balance of the Greater Toronto Area, 768 Condo Apartments sales were reported, identical to Toronto’s percentage jump at up 85.5%, at an average sale price of $547,488, a respectable 4.8% YoY rise.

Speaking of “The Spring of 2017”, by the way, maybe not by all the technical/financial metrics, but from an “in the trenches, boots-on-the-ground” standpoint, this market is "crazier" ...far more difficult to work in. And far more stressful - for the Buyers in particular. Just sayin'... And I'll add: There's an old saying in this business: "When the average buyer can no longer afford the average home, a correction is inevitable." Are we there yet?

Quotable:

TRREB’s Director, Market Analysis, Jason Mercer: “While the housing market as a whole recovered strongly in 2020, there was a dichotomy between the single-family market segments and the condominium apartment segment. The supply of single-family homes remained constrained resulting in strong competition between buyers and double-digit price increases. In contrast, growth in condo listings far-outstripped growth in sales. Increased choice for condo buyers ultimately led to more bargaining power and a year-over-year dip in average condo selling prices during the last few months of the year.”

Thanks for reading. Let’s hope 2021 brings us at least a little normalcy… Oh, and keep an eye on that bond market and the yields.

#StaySafe
Andrew.

#JustBungalows

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