January, 2023: Toronto & GTA MLS® home sales: Hanging in the Balance

Toronto, Ontario, February 3, 2023 - Toronto Regional Real Estate Board member Realtors® in Metropolitan Toronto, The GTA, and South-Central Ontario this morning released the monthly MarketWatch report of residential  MLS® market activity for the month of January, 2023.

Overall…

…meaning all home types and styles across all of TRREB’s market area, the average selling price for December came in at $1,038,668 which represented a drop of 16.4% versus January, 2022. All figures herein are year-over-year [YoY] comparisons, unless otherwise noted.

There were 3,100 home sales reported through the MLS® System of the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board in January. That was a significant drop in sales activity of -44.6%, though it should be noted that we’re comparing to an extreme: The following month - February, 2022 - represented the recent market peak. 

Breaking Down the Numbers

Looking at the figures for specific home types & styles, Detached home sales in Metro Toronto - “The 416” [area code] - were down 32.8% to 318 units at an average sell price of $1,486,124. That’s a 21.3% correction YoY. “The 905” area code - the balance of the Greater Toronto Area, generally - saw sales for the Detached segment fall 38.9% averaging $1,298,809, off 23.8%.

Condo Apartments took an even bigger hit in terms of sales activity, though selling prices weren’t off as sharply: The number of sales was down 57% in Toronto to just 604 units at an average sale price of $711,171, down 6.4%. In the balance of TRREB’s area, 346 units sold, down 42.7%, averaging $646,715, down 10.3%.

If you’d like to have a peek specifically at Bungalows for sale and sold, here’s a deeper dive into those figures including a map with “snapshots” of average Bungalow prices across South-Central Ontario’s “Greater Golden Horseshoe”. That update’s available here monthly.

On Inventory…

The “tell-all” Total Active Listings figure stood at 9,299 homes on the market as of month-end. That’s 124.6% higher YoY. Total homes “Newly listed” in January were down 3.7% versus the year-earlier month - “Newly listed” being in quotes because “new” isn’t always what it appears: “New” often includes properties that were already on the market and subsequently re-listed to change the price or simply “freshen up” the listing.

Forward Inventory [Total Active Listings / Sales] stood at an even three months which is - historically speaking - a relatively balanced market. The Absorption Rate - an indication of how quickly the market’s “absorbing” new listings [Sales / New Listings] was 0.403 - it’s also worth noting that that Forward Inventory figure was just three weeks a year ago.

Quotable…

Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Paul Baron: “Home sales and selling prices appear to have found some support in recent months. This coupled with the Bank of Canada announcement that interest rate hikes are likely on hold for the foreseeable future will prompt some buyers to move off the sidelines in the coming months. Record population growth and tight labour market conditions will continue to support housing demand moving forward.”

TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer: “Home prices declined over the past year as homebuyers sought to mitigate the impact of substantially higher borrowing costs. While short-term borrowing costs increased again in January, negotiated medium-term mortgage rates, like the five-year fixed rate, have actually started to trend lower compared to the end of last year. The expectation is that this trend will continue, further helping with affordability as we move through 2023.” 

TRREB CEO John DiMichele: “All three levels of government have announced policies to enhance housing affordability over the long term, including many initiatives focussed on increasing housing supply in the ownership and rental markets. Most recently, we were encouraged to see Toronto City Council support the Mayor’s 2023 Housing Action Plan as part of the City’s overall $2 billion commitment to housing initiatives.”

Finally…

Homes were selling “123.1% slower” this January versus last at 29 Days on the Market [DOM] compared to 13.

If you’d like an update of market activity specifically in your own neighbourhood - or another ‘hood that’s of interest to you - simply drop us a line. We can also include current selling prices if you’d like them.

Thanks, as always, for stopping by... Andrew.

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