GTA and Toronto Real Estate Statistics

GTA and Toronto Real Estate Statistics - November 2013

December 4, 2013 - Realtors® in the Greater Toronto Area today reported residential sales statistics for November, 2013, showing a continuation of the recent trend, namely, rising prices and sales, combined with shrinking inventory, based on year-over-year comparisons. Toronto and GTA Bungalows continue to be a particularly hot commodity.

The number of homes sold was up for all types, with the exception of semi-detached dwellings in the 416 which were down 1.1% to 267 compared to November, 2012.

Average selling prices also were up across the board, with the exception of Condo Apartments in the 905, which were down .4% to $ $277,389 year-over-year.

Detached homes continued to lead the way in both the 416 and the 905, rising both in terms of units sold and average price. In the former, 913 homes sold, up 23.9%, at an average price of $855,188, up 16.0%. In the latter, the number of sales rose 16.3% to 2,200 homes at an average selling price of $609,557, up 9.7% year-over-year.

Condo Apartments also showed continued strength overall, with the number of sales up 12.7% to 1,081 in the 416 and up 14.2% to 434 in the 905. Average price of those sales was $385,968 in the former, up 10.0%, and $277,389 in the latter, off 0.4% as noted above.

Total sales activity including both areas and all dwelling types came to 6,391, up 13.9% year-over-year. Average price overall was up 11.3% to $538,881.

The continued rise in prices is, obviously, contributed to in large part by by tight inventory: The total number of active listings continued to contract, down 12.1% versus November, 2012 to 16,092 . It's interesting to note, however, that while November, 2012's total active listings were 18,311, that total for November, 2011 was only 15,543...and last November's total sales were 5,793 compared to 6,908 for November, 2011.

That Total Active Listings figure of 16,092 divided by the Monthly Sales of 6,391 indicates a forward supply of 2.52 months - up from last month's forward inventory figure, but still quite tight by historical standards. The Seller's market continues...

Average time it took to sell a home in the GTA was 29 days, down 1 day [3.3%] compared to November, 2012.

I've commented here before on the reporting of statistics by the real estate boards, and how those statistics have suddenly come into question by some industry observers - particularly "duplicate" listings resulting in "extra" sales being reported, thus "enhancing" the actual sales figures. Further, real estate boards "secretly" adjust numbers - "almost always upward".

There's no question. There are duplicate listings out there. And sales that get reported more than once. [And, yes, most people agree that it's highly unlikely prices can continue rising at present rates forever...but most people can figure that one out on their own.]

However...I obtained my real estate license in 1989. At that time, most of York Region, for example, was served by the York Region Real Estate Board. Today, there is no York Region Real Estate Board MLS system - it's all part of the Toronto Real Estate Board MLS. Here's the thing: As the Toronto Board has grown over the years, there are areas in transition - there was in 1989, and there still are today...as TREB's "boundaries" bump up against those of the Barrie Board's MLS, for example.

Agents in those transition areas see the benefit to their clients of becoming members of more than one Board's MLS, simply because it results in broader exposure for their seller clients' properties: Their listings can appear on more than one Board's MLS. In fact, in some instances, an Agent or Broker may belong to more than two boards...a progressive Realtor in Muskoka, for example, might go to the expense and added work of being on every Board down in the Golden Horseshoe - because of the increased exposure of their listings via several MLS Systems.

The point is, because it's been this way for decades, it's inaccurate to suggest that Boards are suddenly inflating sales numbers. Further, figures are reported year-over-year [as above] for the most part - rather than month-over-month - simply because residential real estate tends to have large seasonal fluctuations...the "Spring Market", for example: It's far more relevant to compare on a year-over-year basis for that reason - though the numbers are always available to compare however you want to compare them [see the link below...and in all prior statistics-related posts here].

Which brings me to the next point: the alleged "secret" adjusting of figures..."almost always upward". Well, again - see the links: There's not much "secret" about stats posted on the internet. Most statistics are adjusted regardless of which data set is being referenced - the government's inflation or job numbers, for example. And the revisions are, for the record, more often downward in the reports I just reviewed. [November year-over-year, 2009 through 2012].

Further, if you go to the "Full Report" link below, that big purple "7" on Page 1 denotes the statement at the end of the report, "Past monthly and year-to-date figures are revised on a monthly basis."

Regardless, most people have a pretty good idea of what's going on in their own neighbourhood...or a neighbourhood they're thinking about moving into. Board-wide statistics are only meant to be a general barometer...even moreso for nation-wide numbers...for obvious reasons.

For an update of your own street or neighbourhood, please use the link below.

Have a wonderful Holiday Season...

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